Yemen is next
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
BRIEF: Al-Qaida in Yemen: Target Airports/Airplanes With Small Explosives, NEFA, October 29, 2009
On almost any case, as usual, you're going to find tracing-back evidence that says, "This loose network of inspiration/cooperation/coordination goes back to some deep Gap state." With 9/11, that was clearly Afghanistan. Going forward, the inspirational center shifted to NW Pakistan, but operationally, a certain amount of organizational capacity shifted back toward the Gulf, nearer the truly desired target of Saudi Arabia. Yemen, right next door and a longtime near/actual failing state, is not a surprising pick. Al Qaeda has roots there that go back quite a bit. Under the right conditions, we could be having a similar conversation about Somalia, but it's telling that when the U.S. forces aided Ethiopian forces going into Somalia in January 2007 (what I wrote about in "The Americans Have Landed") to drive out the AQ elements and foreign fighters, virtually all who escaped sought refuge in Yemen, where AQAP (Al Qaeda Arabian Peninsula) continues to evolve. Given the already aggressive bombing campaign pursued by the Saudis a while back (along the border, as I remember, but please correct me if I underestimate), a reasonable scenario to expect might be the US pushing/aiding the Saudis in some sort of crackdown effort there. How likely is that? No idea, since the Saudis do as they please. This particular event probably isn't enough to create the impetus for a significant intervention, but it will likely lead to a bigger effort by US special forces in that area, in conjunction with the Saudis. Point of the post? Under the right scenario, Yemen is next. Again, not a surprise as many experts have been talking this possibility up for a while, along with Somalia. My particular point? AQ can almost always, if they really try, trigger some sort of US military response against the sponsoring-location-of-note. Pull the right future attack, or just keep up the appropriate drum beat of small attacks, and this conversation will expand |
