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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: ScotMcI who wrote (7874)11/3/1997 8:11:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (3) of 25960
 
I haven't seen anyone even try to analyze the mid to long-term impact of the KLES-G10K on Cymer. If it doesn't work, fine, but that doesn't seem realistic. The chances are very good that once Komatsu gets this in production, it's going to impact Cymer's margins and market share. This stock's price assumes total market domination now and for 5 years hence. The degree to which this board completely poo-pooh's any possibility of future competition is not investment analysis, it is hero-worship.

Has anyone seen any hard evidence of any weakness in Komatsu's product? Any idea of production capabilities and timetable?

I'm getting out of Cymer until I get some harder information on competition. The assumptions that it is going to continue to enjoy 90%+ market share at 248nm has turned from a reasoned decision to an hysterical assumption. The hypothesis that it will continue to enjoy total market dominance at 193nm/EUV completely ignores excellent personnel and funding at Lambda Physik and TRW.

Cymer is a wonderful outfit, but the longs have become touters rather than analysts. I'm addressing this to you as you are the only person who was even willing to admit the possibility that Goto's remarks might have at least some factual foundation, that Komatsu might be up to something it wasn't immediately informing us about (gee, how could someone have built a working laser and not informed us immediately?), and that Nikon might actually buy some of their lasers at some point.
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