Same themes as previous entries. Some are profitable [BIIB, MATK,, SYT], some have sales with potential for profit [AMLN, ELN], and others have binary dates with destiny [ARIA, CYTK, DNDN, GNVC, OMER]; some this year, and since this is biotech with its own tempo, some next year :-(. Some are buyout candidates... I recognize the possibility that some might be good to zero [1].
AMLN 10
ARIA 10
BIIB 10
CYTK 10
DNDN 10
ELN 10
GNVC 10
MATK 10
OMER 10
SYT 10
Pledge is $125. My charity is Engineers Without Borders, they "partner with developing communities to improve their quality of life through the implementation of environmentally sustainable, economically sustainable, and equitable engineering projects, while developing internationally responsible engineers and engineering students." Many of their projects are important in raising the level of public health in their partner communities. ewb-usa.org
Thanks to Bulba for hosting and weekly updating. Thanks to all who contributed their thoughts. I learned something from digging into unfamiliar symbols.
A FEW FWIW Footnotes...
[1] As the only entrant with both DNDN and NFLD, I am very aware of the good to zero concept. I also had COR [close to zero], and threw out DCGN at the last moment a year ago [almost zero]. So one home run can overcome a couple or more zeros. I always knew it was possible mathematically, but now there is an existence proof. :-)
2. Based on results so far, trying to game the system with overweightings and high probability buyouts has not worked well. This year's selections are much more linear.
3. I had thought about the Chinese biotechs, given the really good results from taking Peter's hint on SKBI. But I still feel uncomfortable with transparency, communications, business process, etc.
4. SYT deserves some detail... MON is clearly the leader in this area. But they control 80% of the existing market. So it is possible for others to grow larger percentages... I think that SYT has the best shot in this space.
5. OMER has not been previously discussed [I think]. It is a Seattle bio company with a primary focus on surgery aids [bio-scaffolding, supports, etc] and a secondary focus on inflammation and CNS. I became aware of them from a fellow passenger on a flight to Japan this past fall. He was knowledgeable and focused on the details of their clinical trials. Much like a Flight Test Director is completely focused on bird, systems, and crew. I enjoyed it. The Yahoo details are all bad data since there was an IPO in October. While this is high risk, I cannot see that it is necessarily higher risk than any of my other selections except maybe BIIB, MATK, and SYT.
6. DNDN... 20% on DNDN would have wound up a much better year. Based on its current price and the uncertainties associated with approval [90%+ likely], market size [estimated at 30K annually, but could be much higher or lower depending on the macro-economics, label, rest of the world decisions, etc], and revenue stream, I chickened out and took the middle of the road; 10%.
Best,
graham
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