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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 414.48+0.7%Jan 9 4:00 PM EST
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To: RJA_ who wrote (59587)1/2/2010 2:43:38 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) of 219172
 
I don't know how long before we might see a tungsten carbide or similar substitute for platinum in an automotive catalyst.

Let's note that there has been extensive study of anti-pollution platinum catalyst all over the world, by very bright people, usually well funded.

So maybe the first tungsten carbide catalyst is only 10% as effective as platinum, and if tweaked with some rare earth elements it is 30% as effective.

The catalytic converter box might become 3 times larger, but this would still be cheaper than the 1/4 to 1/3 ounce of platinum now in use.

Tungsten is $30 per kilogram or about $1.00 a troy ounce.
Platinum is $1400 per troy ounce.

Let's say this could save about $200 per car. About 60 million cars per year with catalytic converters (out of 70 million vehicles per year)
That's 12 Billion per year, enough to get even Warren Buffet interested.

Auto catalysts are both a major use of Platinum and a major recycling source, so if the platinum was replaced or significantly reduced, there would be an excess supply of recycled Platinum coming on the market every year for a long time.

So to sum up -

1) Extensive scientific knowledge and research
2) Huge financial incentive
3) Massive above ground inventories in catalysts already being recycled

equals a serious potential problem.

Could happen in five years or five months.
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