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Technology Stocks : ACTM $100 Million Cable Modem Contract with MOT

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To: jeffbas who wrote (300)11/3/1997 10:45:00 AM
From: rich evans   of 1250
 
Jeff, I think your post sets forth accurately the scenario being used based on the conference call and cautious outlook/estimates based on the suprises we received. A more optimistic view but not necessarily more accurate could be: Pino was being very cautious with estimates based on legal considerations, poor visability evidenced by their statement about being "shocked" so if they go back to orginally projected run rates their may be a better Q4 then they would say. I would say 275 mill min. Also the margin question going forward should rebound faster IMO. The reduction discussed was 7-8%. 4% was materials cost due to mix changes. But it was indicated that this was fault of customer and they would be returning inventory for credit. 1% was underutilized labor which should not be there for Q4. 3% was factory fixed overhead which was charged in Q3 due to reduced shipment problem. So I expect a faster snapback. The tax rate is unclear to me but these gross margins if improved should reflect better than the First Call estimates IMO. Next year based on the poor visability indicated is a guess but I am guessing at least 10% more than your figures as to sales and earnings. But I think a trier of fact would vote with you with his mind but hope springs eternal.

Rich
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