hello kyrosl, i am told that the contrarian plays would be to wager for:
(a) usa (economy, markets, and its $) wildly up or usa wildly down, and/or
(b) china wildly up or china wildly down
i am inclined to wager that,
(i) should events in chinusa go wildly up, the biggest market players, namely the monetary authorities, will stump heavy-footed on the breaks causing the mother of all crumbles, and
(ii) should wildly down be the direction, the big brother will throw all caution to the wind, say hail mary loudly enough, and print to wild abandon
and so max caution is a must, and a.a. astute agility macro will trump d.d. due diligence stock-picking, as we are playing against the house that ever loses for long.
under conditions of zero interest rate, pools of money just bouncing around from asset villages to liability towns, burning, looting and raping.
i.e. forget investing, think speculation. whatever we end up buying today (stuff, shares, bonds, currencies) we must sell when 120-150 days is up, then go on vacation
cheers, tj |
