and CFS's Kumar jumps on it - there are only a few anals that consistently provide useful data.
Kumar is certainly not one of them - but who cares as long as stock goes up...unless you are short
Firm raises immersion litho forecast
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Mark LaPedus
EE Times
(01/04/2010 8:23 PM EST)
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Citing the fab tool recovery, Barclays Capital has raised its immersion lithography unit shipment estimate from 95 units to 105 units for 2010.
ASML Holding NV of the Netherlands continues to dominate the market. It could ship 88 of the total 105 units in 2010, according to a report from the firm.
Japan's Nikon Corp. still owns the leading-edge business at Intel Corp., according to a report from the investment banking firm.
Overall, the lithography is up. ''The key driver behind this uptick is expectations for the memory space to take nine more tools in 2010 led by an extra four from Samsung, three from Nanya/Inotera, three from Elpida, one from Hynix, and then two less at Toshiba, one less at Tech, and Numonyx taking its first tool,'' said C.J. Muse, an analyst at Barclays Capital, in a report. ''We also see foundries taking three extra tools while logic will take two less than our prior forecast.''
ASML continues to dominate the landscape. ''From a stepper market share perspective, while we see Nikon shipping one tool each to Samsung and Toshiba in 2010, we actually forecast ASML's share in 2010 higher than we previously thought -- our unit estimate now increases from 74 immersion units to 88 immersion units,'' Muse said.
''Clearly, after only one immersion shipment by ASML in 1Q09 followed by only six in 2Q09, there was real pent-up demand for immersion tools heading into 2H09 and beyond,'' he said. ''What's important to recognize here is that while Nikon has Intel's 32-nm business and will likely ship one tool to Samsung and Toshiba each, ASML will likely secure 100 percent of the rest of the available business.''
The overall fab tool business is up. ''We expect the current cycle to be longer and better than consensus, led by our outlook for capex spending to come in better than current consensus of plus 40-50 percent in 2010,'' he said. ''We model plus 50 percent based on likely January/February chip makers' guidance numbers, but see the actual CY10 spending ending at plus 65-75 percent year-over-year followed by another growth year in 2011.'' |
