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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (46461)	1/14/2010 6:52:40 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95530

HI Don, That is true. I think on the more positive side that was 2002.It was only 2 years after the major distribution top. Ted Warren talks about major market tops and says no rise of substantial percentage can occur until at least 6years have gone by. We've now had 10 years from the top. That is not to say we are due for a straight up meteoric rise. In fact, I do believe we will have a corrective phase wave that could well retrace 35% to 38% of the run up from the 09 March lows. I'm hopeful we have a nice volatile 3rd wave here and then go sideways with one more semi strong top then the 2-4 month corrective wave-which could go out to 7-8 months. That will put us into the summer doldrums and if the semi's are truly back - they'll plow through the summer with margins in tact and inventories managed. That's a perfect set up for Netbook Christmas and a JOLLY 2011.

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