Don, in Oct, Intel had an excellent report and CC, went up in the morning, but gave most of it back in the afternoon. Within 2 days, the stock was below where it had been on earnings day. It wouldn't surprise me to see something similar happen this time.
I think Intel's report is more important for other tech companies, especially those in the PC supply chain. They establish that sales are strong, and give an indication that they will continue to be strong. I think there is still a huge amount of skepticism about this market and the economy in general, which, IMHO, is good for the longer term. Listening to Bloomberg and a little CNBC, I still hear people saying that the only thing keeping the economy going is govt stimulus. This flies in the face of what the CEOs in the CCs that I listen to are saying. They are saying that business is good and improving, and visibility is nearly back to normal. They are simply ignored. I think the skeptics are only looking at stats like the US unemployment numbers and housing sales, and allowing these to dictate their views. The world economy is no longer just dictated by the US, though. Asia and the Bric countries have become far more important, especially for tech companies, and my guess is that the skeptics are simply missing this, and that is why reported results have beaten estimates by large amounts in the past few quarters.
At some point, IMHO, these skeptics will be converted, and we will have good reactions to good numbers. The market will probably begin heading a few months after that happens. There is still a lot of fuel on the sidelines of this market, and Mr. Market will find a way to lure it in eventually, IMHO. |
