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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 395.80+0.1%Dec 15 4:00 PM EST
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To: Golconda who wrote (59936)1/15/2010 7:44:48 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) of 218509
 
just in in-tray

John Greenwood gave a presentation at an Invesco luncheon today, which attracted about 100 people. Highlights are as follows:

(1) Government bond yields and commodity prices will fall later this year amid continued low inflation and sub-par growth in developed economies for 2010

--- Balance sheet repair in US and UK has just begun

--- Previous balance sheet recessions always led to low inflation (e.g., Japan in 90s, UK in 80s)

--- Low money and credit growth due to weak private sector demand for credit (household de-leveraging is a slow process)

--- Sub-par GDP growth of around 1%-3% for US, EU, Japan, UK, Canada and Australia in 2010

(2) Warned of significant inflation risk in China for 2010

--- A surge in money growth (e.g., M2 grew around 30%) will eventually lead to high inflation

--- China's real GDP is expected to grow 9.4% this year

(3) Solid growth for Asia in 2010, but still weaker than 2007

--- Emerging economies have been recovered quickly as they have not been burdened with debt

--- But the growth pace this year will be weaker than that in 2007 (before the crisis) as Western countries are mostly recovering slowly

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