The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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From: ChanceIs	1/21/2010 3:38:38 PM
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JP Morgan melting down - a thing of beauty. Another Downey Financial??? Couldn't be that bad, but one can hope. Meredith shredding: Meredith Whitney Now Pouncing on JPMorgan (GS, MS, JPM) Posted: December 18, 2009 at 11:17 am Meredith Whitney must be staggering her bank coverage news out to get more exposure, or at least that is a cynical take on the matter. Yesterday, she hit Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) on the earnings estimates for 2009 and 2010, with targets out to 2011 and 2012. Now she has hit JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) earnings estimates for this year and next. While this is under the consensus for this year and next, what we wanted to look at was beyond the call and see what would be fair forward valuations for the greatest money center bank in America based upon her estimates and Wall Street consensus estimates. Whitney cut the current quarter for Q4-2009 earnings estimates to $0.45 EPS, down from $0.55 and down from a consensus reading of $0.64 from Thomson Reuters. That in turn has taken down the full year estimates by a similar amount to $1.95 EPS versus a Thomson Reuters consensus of $2.15 EPS. 247wallst.com Whalen wailing: A Tale of Two Banks: Florence Savings and JPMorgan Chase January 19, 2010 .... Now you understand that the Street was surprised by JPM's results. The concept of weak revenue somehow does not square with 40% EPS growth in 2010. That's where the Street is on JPM even now and even though it is pretty clear from management statements that the end of the pain is still ahead. We almost felt sad for the analysts who were actually hoping for a dividend increase. Ever hopeful, during the JPM call our colleague Meredith Whitney asked JPM CEO Jamie Dimon several times if there would not be some relief from Washington on those HELOC and other exposures, call it "HAMP II." Dimon denied any more knowledge than the analyst rat pack when it comes to future largess from Washington. We think it will be tough for the banks to engineer a bailout while they are repaying the cost of TARP -- and also filing in the hole in the Deposit Insurance Fund at FDIC. Call the new tax load 15bp on net assets, with an even higher vig for the top 50 banks. us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com

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