Irreconcilable Reconciliation [Robert Costa]
For Democrats, the medicine cabinet is mostly empty, save for "a poisonous pill called reconciliation," says Sen. Judd Gregg (R., N.H.), the ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, to National Review Online. That's the Senate budget procedure enabling a bill to pass with 51 votes. As Democrats plot to keep Obamacare alive, they seem ready to pop that pill and "swallow the consequences," says Gregg. Before they try, Gregg cautions that such a maneuver is, "procedurally, an extremely heavy lift in the Senate" and "unrealistic." Democrats, he says, should "learn the lessons of Massachusetts, and stop playing by the rules of San Francisco."
Here's what Gregg says we should be paying attention to: "In theory, if the Democrats choose to use reconciliation, they'd first have to pass the Senate bill as it stands and get it signed by the president. To get those House votes they'd have to buy off different constituencies by saying that they'll pass a smaller, reconcilable 'trailer bill' in the Senate soon after the big bill passes. That trailer bill would probably have to go through the committee process — though the Democrats could try to skip the committees under reconciliation — before it goes to the floor." Using a future "trailer bill" full of legislative goodies to pass the current Senate health-care bill is "heavy-handed gamesmanship," says Gregg. "Technically, they could do it, by saying they'll bring back corrections in reconciliation, but it would take extreme discipline."
The biggest hurdle for Democrats is the Byrd rule, says Gregg. "Any piece of a reconciliation bill that is more about policy than budgetary activity will be subject to points of order and will need 60 votes to stay in the bill. Every sentence would be dissected. The bill would come in looking like a piece of legislation and leave as a piece of Swiss cheese. I just don't see Democrats' being able to sustain such a bill if they're dealing with point of order after point of order."
Eric Ueland, a former senior aide to Senate Republicans, agrees. "Reconciliation is being sold to House Democrats by the leadership as an appealing sidecar bill, but many of them are rightfully wary," he says. "They know that reconciliation only lasts for five years, and they know that none of the fixes in reconciliation legislation can really be guaranteed, since the Byrd rule will let senators come in and riddle the bill with rifle shots." And remember, Ueland says, "to even get to reconciliation, Democrats will have to scramble to figure out how all of the deals they cut can survive the process, which may be the least reconcilable part of all of this."
The Corner on National Review Online (22 January 2010)
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