VCD Player sales are up 995% for the first 9 months, in Beijing! Well maybe I'm too low, but the major Cities in China have more families with buying power than the rest of the country. Here's how I look at VCD:
The total volume of VCD chips shipped in Q4, 1996, and Q1, 1997 was 7.6M units. This year VCD prices have dropped about 40%. Today, the same money that it took to buy one VCD player could buy 1.666 players, if spending were flat. GDP is growing by 9 to 10% in China. The average good that is consumed will see 10% more spending. VCD is more than an average consumable.
If you increase the 1.666 players by 10%, you get a ratio of 1.8 players to 1, being sold year-over year. If spending increases 20%, its 2.0 players to 1(I think this is more likely). If you multiply those factors by last year 7.6M units, you get a VCD market that is 13.68M units to 15.2M units, for the six month period we just entered. Cube had 65% of the market last Q. VCD is big. |
