Acorda Therapeutics Inc. Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Acorda Therapeutics Inc.

ACOR 0.880

-13.8%

Apr 10 5:00 PM EST

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To: quantman who wrote (101)	1/27/2010 8:55:28 AM
From: kenhott	Read Replies (1) of 120

We are skiing and if I get caught working, the boss will kill me and I will be dead. I just quickly looked at your post and just a couple of comments, probably with oversights. So everything is relative. Data were out by mid 08, and the returns for someone looking for a good ACOR price and sold after FDA was like 90%. That assumes no funny business about selling options, etc. People had some doubts about the drug in front of FDA which gave what I've been calling a low risk return for the FDA risks. That to me was the easy part if someone understood the nature of this stock (I think the stock hit like mid 30s between the two time points, higher than the current price). Going forward the valuation is tied to market sales. For me, sales is much more difficult to predict with assurance than the FDA decision. So my comment about easy money. I think you missed the loss carryover valuation in a takeover. Also Zanaflex is running at like $50m sales a year. A generic challenge is on-going, the 30 month stay is up in March. I personally think the patent is good. The patent runs till early 2020s.. I think. On 4AP, they should get the full 5 yr patent extension thru H-W to I think mid 2018. There is some value to the pipeline. To be simple minded the only thing that matters now is sales. If they can get the sales, there is plenty of room to run. A takeout valuation is usually higher than what the market will give as an on-going company. Because they are self-marketing, there is a lot of leverage to sale dollars here as a stand-alone company except they will probably run too high of a r&d number. Leverage goes both way, if sales is not up to par.... BIIB was suggesting mid-30s as a price before the FDA decision. I am not sure one should invest in any stock just for the takeover since they are few and far in between. So this investment is likely down to the usual about what one vs. another think about sales over time.

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