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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch

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From: Rarebird1/27/2010 9:32:34 AM
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Transcendental Market Truths (Fragments):

The Market:

If the market can't get a rally over the next few days, it probably means the larger secular bear cycle is going to prevail.

If this is a significant top, I would expect to see the broad market indices falling behind the blue chips. In other words, the Russell 2000 and Value Line Indices should be negative. I also will be watching for bearish divergence between the two leaders, NDX and SOX, relative to the SPX and Dow Industrials, which also sometimes occurs at a significant top. The Bank Sector Index BKX action should also be instructive as that index is often a good leading indicator.

Dow Industrials:

The strength in money flow into the Dow Industrials I've seen lately most likely represents traders fleeing to the liquidity safety of the blue chips and is not as bullish as it could have been.

Russell 2000:

I am seeing insider-selling predominating in this index. Apparently, the smaller stocks are finding the economy very difficult to deal with now.

SPX:

The SPX, however, is much stronger from a money flow point of view.

This is a typical pattern seen during broadening top formations. The SPX could easily continue higher for several more months.
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