Thanks so much, since you are on v/c. Have fun, and no need to reply until you are done.
Re your thoughts and comments, I appreciate it very much. In terms of some of your points re my post, which was based on a bare bones ultra minimum valuation:
1. I was not saying value for the other components were zero, just that let's ignore them for now, in the bigger scheme of things. So, I was essentially setting aside Zanaflex, other pipeline compunds etc.
2. Your point of the tax benefit of loss carryforwards is valid, and obviously BIIB or any other profitable acquirer would have to assign value to those loss carryforwards based on their tax rate/impact. I was aware of that but also set that aside. But that is very significant!
3. My point on the rest of the math in the valuation as noted in my earlier post is simple.
Assume peak sales of just 50K MS patients on AMYPRA at about $8K a year and you get some significant NPV (I don't like using the term DCF) for someone like a BIIB who would have pay out quite a bit to ACOR in the event they get approval in Europe and Canada. So, once they get that approval, I can't see why the teams cannot come get together and work something out. So, unless you think even 50K patients for peak sales is a question mark, I think we can do the math using just such a minimum bare bones assumption.
I guess unlike ACOR mgmt, I just do not see ACOR being viable as a standalone pharma now or in the next several years. They, in my opinion, do not have a research team AND pipeline to substantiate a stand alone pharma's research and distribution set up. With just one drug (this is the key), this is not doable and very risky in terms of building the capabilities needed for a stand alone pharma. So, if you Fidelity with a 15% ownership, or a BOD member, and are looking at ACOR strategically, I don't know how you can come to any other conclusion. Of course, proving and ramping the sales will get the best valuation, so ACOR has to move forward for now.
Besides BIIB, I could even see a mega pharma interested, not just in ACOR but also BIIB (as a combo deal) due to the CEO succession and merger HR issues at BIIB. |
