Aden Forecast (01/28/2010)
"Gold's C rise is clearly over. The gold price rise from mid April to end November, 2009, gaining 40% in 7½ months was a great bull market C rise. This means the major trend is solidly up for higher prices in the years ahead, but for now the intermediate rise is over.
Today's decline closed below $1,090, at a 12-week low, which confirmed the end of the rise. A 'D' decline is now underway as long as gold stays below $1,110. D declines tend to be the worst intermediate decline, but in a bull market the gold price will stay near or above the 65-week moving average now at $965. It's still to be seen how steep (or not) this decline will be, but if you want to sell part of your positions, do it now. Otherwise, we recommend keeping your positions because the major trends are up, but don't buy new ones yet.
Silver is following gold. It also closed at a 12-week low today. It's vulnerable to a further decline by staying below $17.50. It could possibly test the rising 65-week MA now at $14.50, but the major trend would remain up. The gold share indices are declining more than gold. They are currently testing their Oct lows, which is the next support at 385 on the HUI index.
Platinum and palladium are coming down with gold, but from a 17-month high posted last week. Both are very strong even if they decline to $1,440 and $375, respectively. Keep your new ETFs."
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