Preliminary Smartphone Sales and Share Estimates for CY 2009 v. CY 2008
>> Preliminary CY 2009 & Q4'2009 Smartphone Unit Sell-In Sales and Share
Units CY2008 ¦ Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 ¦ CY'09 TD %
======== ¦ ======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
1. Nokia¹ 60.60m ¦ 13.7m 16.9m 16.4m 20.8m ¦ 67.8m 38.4%
2. RIM² 22.65m ¦ 7.6m 7.8m 8.3m 10.1m ¦ 33.8m 19.2%
3. Apple² 13.70m ¦ 3.8m 5.2m 7.4m 8.7m ¦ 25.1m 14.2%
Others 64.05m ¦ 10.9m 11.1m 14.9m 12.8m ¦ 49.7m 28.2%
-------- ¦ ------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ ------ ------
Total³ 161.00m ¦ 36.0m 41.0m 47.0m 52.4m ¦ 176.4m 100.0%
============================================================================
Share % ¦ Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 ¦ CY'09 TD %
===== ¦ ======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
1. Nokia 37.6% ¦ 39.0% 41.0% 35.0% 39.7% ¦ 67.8m 38.4%
2. RIM 14.1% ¦ 12.9% 15.1% 13.7% 19.3% ¦ 33.8m 19.2%
3. Apple 8.5% ¦ 5.2% 12.7% 15.9% 16.6% ¦ 25.1m 14.2%
Others 39.8% ¦ 30.3% 27.0% 31.7% 24.4% ¦ 49.7m 28.2%
------ ¦ ------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ ------ ------
100.0% ¦ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ¦ 176.4m 100.0%
·
¹ Source: Nokia's volumes from Nokia's quarterly earning statements.
² Source: RIM's and Apple's volumes from their quarterly statements.
³ Source: Nokia's estimate of total global Converged Device Sell-In by Quarter
which is generally higher than most 3rd party scorekeepers. [below]
Note: Nokia is the only OEM that provides an estimate of total global converged device smartphone sell-in with every quarterly earnings release. Nokia's estimate of total global converged device sell-in by quarter is generally higher than that subsequently tallied by most 3rd party scorekeepers. An example of Nokia's typical quarterly overestimation of the total smartphone market (relative to 3rd party scorekeepers) is that Canalys -- generally considered to be the most respected of the 3rd party scorekeepers -- saw 41.4 million smartphone units sold into channels in Q3 (v. Nokia's 47 million estimate) giving Nokia 39.7% market share (up .8 .ppt from Q3'08) v. Nokia's own estimate of 35%. Likewise, in the preceding quarter Canalys estimated Nokia's share at 44.3% while Nokia estimated it at 41%. In CY 2009 most 3rd parties will likely estimate Nokia's CY 2009 sell-in at ~40% (or just slightly higher) and slightly up from the prior year. Smartphones are a global game and excluding sales in North America where Nokia has little presence, Nokia sells in more than 50% of the smartphones sold globally.
In about 5 weeks Gartner will weigh in with their estimate of global smartphone sell through from distribution channels to end users, and their numbers should also show Nokia as well as Apple and RIM gaining smartphone share in CY2009 at the expense of others. Through the 1st 3 quarters of CY 2009 Gartner had Nokia share flat CYoCY and well in excess of 40% unit share globally with RIM and Apple up substantially over CY 2008 ...
CY 2008 Q1'09 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q3'09 Q4'08 Q4'09 09'CYTD
Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share
============ ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== =============
Nokia 60.9m 43.7% 15.0m 41.2% 18.4m 45.0% 16.2m 39.3% TBD TBD 49.6m 43.7%
RIM 23.1m 16.6% 7.2m 19.9% 7.7m 18.7% 8.5m 20.8% TBD TBD 23,4m 20.6%
Apple 11.4m 8.2% 3.9m 10.8% 5,4m 13.3% 7.0m 17.1% TBD TBD 16.3m 14.3%
HTC¹ 5.9m 4.2% 1.2m 5.4% 2,4m 6.0% 2,7m 6.5% TBD TBD 6.3m 5.5%
Fujitsu 1.4m 3.8% 1,3m 3.0% ? ? TBD TBD ? ? ? ?
Sharp 5.2m 3.8% ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Samsung ? ? ? ? ? ? 1.3m 3.2% TBD TBD ? ?
Others 32.7m 23.5% 6.9m 18.8% 5.7m 13.9% 5.4m 13.1% TBD TBD 18.0m 15.9%
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ------ ------
Total 139.3m 100.0% 36,4m 100.0% 41,0m 100.0% 41.1m 100.0% TBD 100.0% 113.6m 100.0%
In Q4 2009 Nokia's revenues from smartphones jumped 26 percent from the previous quarter to €3.9 billion ($5.5 billion USD¹) despite the fact that their average smartphone price dipped to €186 ($262 USD¹) from €190 ($277 USD²) in the third quarter. In CQ4 smartphones accounted for 48% of Nokia's mobile devices and services revenue of €8.2 Billion ($11.7 Billion USD¹), and 33% of their total net sales of €11.99 Billion ($17.2 Billion USD¹) derived from mobile wireless telephony.
¹ Currency conversion at 12/31/2009 Interbank Rate
² Currency conversion at 09/30/2009 Interbank Rate
While much of the above has been Nokia focused it is important to note that like Nokia, in CY 2009 and in Q4 2009 both #2 RIM, and #3 Apple had record quarters in smartphone unit sales, and both had record quarters for smartphone revenues:
• RIM sold-in 10.4 million BlackBerry smartphones with an ASP of $319 in their final calendar quarter ending November 30, producing $3.924 Billion USD revenue: ($3.22 Billion device sales; $549 million services; and $157 million software, support, and other). RIM's consumer segment continued to expand during the last quarter, accounting for roughly 80% of net adds and over 60% of subs. International RIM sales expanded nicely in CY 2009 but their user base is still primarily North American with international sales accounting for 37% of total revenues.
• With just a single high end smartphone model, Apple sold-in 8.74 million iPhone 3GSs in CQ4 2009 with an ASP of $620. In CQ4 "Net sales of iPhone and related products and services were $5.6 billion" While North American sales are still dominant, Apple added several new carriers internationally for the iPhone in the quarter and now has iPhone distribution in 86 countries.
Both Strategy Analytics (SA) and IDC have checked in with their preliminary estimates of both CQ4'09 and CY 2009 unit sell-in and share of total mobile devices, and while varying slightly they were quite similar ..
• Strategy Analytics saw 324.4 million units sold-in to channels in 4Q'09 compared to 293.8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2008 (up 10.4% YoY). They saw a total of 1.132 billion units sold-in on a cumulative worldwide basis in 2009, down 3.9% from the 1.18 billion units shipped in 2008. Applying the 3 leading smartphone vendors actual reported mobile device unit s sell-in against their unit sales estimates ...
--> Nokia: With 126.9 million units shipped in Q4'09 Nokia had 39.1% global unit share up slightly from 38.5% in Q4'08. For the full year Nokia shipped 431.8 million mobile devices for 38.1% share down 1.8 ppt.from 39.8% in 2008, Smartphones (67.8 million) accounted for 15.7% of their total annual mobile device sell-in and 6% of the total addressable mobile device market (TAM).
--> RIM: With 10.1 million units shipped in Q4'09 RIM had 3.1% global unit share of mobile devices. For the full year RIM shipped 33.8 million mobile devices for 3% global share of mobile devices, Smartphones accounted for 100% of their total annual mobile device sell-in.
--> Apple: With 8.7 million units shipped in Q4'09 Apple had 2.7% global unit share of mobile devices. For the full year Apple shipped 25.1 million mobile devices for 2.2% global share of mobile devices, Smartphones accounted for 100% of their total annual mobile device sell-in.
symbian.sys-con.com
• IDC saw 325.3 million units sold-in to channels in 4Q'09 compared to 292.4 million units in the fourth quarter of 2008 up 11.2% YoY. They saw a total of 1.13 billion units sold-in on a cumulative worldwide basis in 2009, down 5.2% from the 1.19 billion units shipped in 2008. Applying the 3 leading smartphone vendors actual reported mobile device unit s sell-in against their unit sales estimates ...
--> Nokia: With 126.9 million units shipped in Q4'09 Nokia had 39% global unit share up from 38.7% in Q4'08. For the full year Nokia shipped 431.8 million mobile devices for 38.3% share, Smartphones (67.8 million) accounted for 15.7% of their total annual mobile device sell-in and 6% of the total addressable mobile device market (TAM).
--> RIM: With 10.1 million units shipped in Q4'09 RIM had 3.1% global unit share of mobile devices. For the full year RIM shipped 33.8 million mobile devices for 3% global share of mobile devices, Smartphones accounted for 100% of their total annual mobile device sell-in.
--> Apple: With 8.7 million units shipped in Q4'09 Apple had 2.7% global unit share of mobile devices. For the full year Apple shipped 25.1 million mobile devices for 2.2% global share of mobile devices, Smartphones accounted for 100% of their total annual mobile device sell-in.
2cyu.sl.pt
Caveat: The usual applies. It is possible and perhaps probable that in creating the table templates I chose to employ for this exercise, and in extracting data and compiling the tables above, and those that will appear in future posts on this board, that I have made typos, transposition errors, or calculation errors. If anyone spots one I'd most appreciate being so advised.
- Eric - |
