Mike, just got home from work and looked at the CTXS tick chart.
I watched the market this morning before work (west coast) and again for the close. I feel that today was a very important day for the bulls. I believe that today was carefully watched, and that anything that didn't perform today will be pared from portfolios.
I feel that investors want to be fully-invested now, but are picking their stocks carefully. They are looking for value. They weren't too keen on Intel today, for example, but they lapped-up SUNW and QNTM.
CTXS put in a very weak showing against this backdrop. It just ain't got no umph, on a day when the market had nothing BUT umph for good tech stocks.
Not quite sure if I'm ready to short it yet, but boy would this be a sweet place to short it if it's the right spot! :)
The flag still looks like it wants to break out, but if it fails, I think it will be ugly. Certainly there is at least a short-term opportunity here should CTXS fail to break out in the next day or two. I'm think 60, to close the gap (which was kinda closed on "crash day", and then 50, where there would seem to be considerable support.
If you look at the chart for the last year, you will see a divergence in the MACD (higher prices with MACD failing to confirm - MACD peaks corresponding, but not higher. Not *terribly* droopy, but droopy - the MACD should be making new highs, not failing to reach old ones. And the MACD certainly is at a high level here and ready to cross-over to the down side, and so any slump here will probably be accelerated.
Shorter term, stochastic showing the same divergence throughout October. I see no evidence of "smart money" moving in - in fact quite the opposite, with the NVI falling as the price has risen.
I think there may be a realization from tech investors that they've squeezed about as much blood out of this turnip as it's got, and perhaps there are greener pastures.
Of course, this thing *could* be at 90 next week, but at this point, the flag is the only supporting technical evidence for that scenario. I'd judge it both a risky short and long at this point. That could change in an instant, though. |
