<<I wonder what, other than current market sentiment, makes you think that DELL is any less a commodity product than GTW?>>
I never said that DELL is selling anything more than a commodity...what they have managed to do is effectively manage their inventory turns, cashflow and costs, showing us all that it is possible to make oodles of money selling a commodity.
GTW has been asleep at the wheel, imo assuming that their customers will stick around no matter what, and also not aggressively attacking the corporate market. I still have an older Gateway 486 that runs like a charm and has never given me an ounce of trouble...does that mean I bought my next one from them or will buy another from them? No...its a commodity and while service and support are important, PRICE by far is the most important factor.
Now GTW is caught between a rock and a hardplace...their business model just does not seem capable of competing with DELL and CPQ, and the future holds no relief for them...if they can't make money now, how are they going to do it in a more price competitive arena?
For those hoping the VTEL thing will somehow pull it all together, without trying to sound arrogant, I think you're grasping at straws...VTEL is losing about as much money as GTW.
And the long term? I would say lets take a arbitrary amount of money, say $1000, and buy $1000 worth of DELL, a $1000 worth of CPQ and a $1000 worth of GTW at todays closing prices, and come back in 1 year...2 years...3 years...4 years...5 years and lets see what each of those $1000 are worth...my guess is that DELL and CPQ will far outperform GTW, even at todays expensive prices.
Sorry to sound so negative on GTW, but thats the way I see it and thats why I'm short GTW. |
