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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: dsindakota who wrote (128152)	2/1/2010 9:41:56 AM
From: CommanderCricket	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 206151

From Morgan Stanley February 1, 2010 InterOil Corporation (IOC.N) Research Tactical Idea We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days. IOC has traded off almost 30% of recent highs despite no material fundamental changes to its story. We believe the stock is trading at the distrressed value of its stranded gas with no value for an LNG interest sell-down (expect 1H10), resource upgrade (expect March), or potentiatial oil discovery (expect February); all events we expect to see in 1H2010 and we believe will drive share prices higher. We believe risk/reward is positively skewed. We estimate that there is about an 80%+ or "almost certain" probability for the scenario. Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our assessment of the likelihood of the scenario. Stock Rating: Overweight Industry View: Attractive Morgan

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