Okay, the HUI bounced off 374.04 not 377, but what's
3 points among friends?
Message 26195820
From: SliderOnTheBlack 12/22/2009 1:45:36 PM
"If the correction in gold continues we could see a very
compelling buying opportunity in gold shares at the HUI 377,
or even the HUI 336 levels. So leave some powder dry in order
to be able to take advantage of those valuation levels, should
this dollar rally continue."
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Message 26258613
From: SliderOnTheBlack 1/20/2010 11:06:00 AM
We're re-testing support of the present HUI trading channel,
with HUI 377 the next level of support that could easily be
hit, if a correction in the broad market continues.
I think you have to be patient here and wait and see if
this sell off in the broad markets turns into a meaningful
correction.
A great place to begin to sell puts, scaling in with an
eye on HUI 377ish as next support. And given the manic
swings, not a bad place to do a little day trading, with
tight stops.
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Message 26273991
From: SliderOnTheBlack 1/26/2010 9:48:58 AM
HUI 377 should see strong support.
Still like put sales here as initial re-entry trades.
Physical silver is getting interesting, I'm a buyer @ $15.875
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It looks like Gold & Gold stocks are battling back from
yet another shakedown. The last leg of this correction was
generated by George Soros' Davos 2010 headline of:
"Gold Is Now The Ultimate Bubble"
Gold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George
Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the
precious metal may soon suffer a tumble...
telegraph.co.uk
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Soros, well known for his "hit and run" market and currency
attacks, is of course, no stranger to churning and burning
the gold market.
Soros caused a mad rush into gold in 1993 with his major
media appearances leading to a quick +20% pop in gold prices,
only to soon dump into the rally, and roll into an attack on
German Bunds and the D-Mark.
1993 New York Times:
Rumors of Buying by Soros Send Gold Prices Surging
FUTURES MARKETS:
Published: November 5, 1993
nytimes.com
Gold prices jumped again yesterday, amid rumors that the
billionaire financier George Soros was starting to buy gold
once more.
In lively trading on the Commodity Exchange in New York, gold
for December delivery jumped $4.40 an ounce, to $372.40.
Partly because of a late Wednesday rally, gold prices have
shot up $8.80 an ounce in two days.
-----------
The Kellog Business School at Northwestern calls these
mass hedge fund attacks a "herding phenomena."
kellogg.northwestern.edu
And Nobel economist Paul Krugman calls these blatant market
manipulations "Soroi," coining the term in honor of George
Soros & Co's many market raids.
web.mit.edu
Market manipulation
"Scenarios in which crises are generated either by
self-fulfilling rational expectations or by irrational herding
behavior imply at least the possibility of profitable market
manipulation by large speculators. (Krugman 1996 proposes that
such hypothetical agents be referred to as "Soroi")."
-----------
I simply call them what they are, inside trading, parasitical,
"market manipulators," front running and trading on inside
information they have through the revolving door between
government, central banks, and international finance capital.
For gold, it was a matter of "when, not if" old resistance
of $1,000 gold and the $1033 former high would be tested
as new support.
I mentioned back on December 4th while gold was rallying to
new highs, to set stops at $1,150, and to expect a traditional
50%ish pullback of the move, which would take us to $1050.
Message 26152200
Here's my chart for gold from December 4th.
Given the direct shakedown attack by the shark of all sharks,
George Soros, today's + $22 rally is setting up a potential
reversal out of a distributive, descending triangle formation:
I sold some out of the money puts (targeting HUI 336),
and threw on a few short term, March to May calls into this
correction, but am still in a high cash position, as the
market is deciding if all of this talk about "austerity"
is real, or Memorex; with Stimulus II potentially just
months away, if the U.S. does not see a recovery in jobs.
This has been a nasty correction for gold stocks, but
the HUI is right on the verge of potentially breaking
out of it's correction channel if this rally extends
another day, or two. And we're supported by the cheapest
valuation of the shares to the metal in the HUI:Gold ratio,
in the last six months.
We knew the metal would hold up better than the shares,
and that gold shares would get whacked worse than the market
on any correction.
Nothing fundamental has improved long term for the U.S.
Dollar, with $1 trillion dollar annual budget deficits
stretching out for another decade, with absolutely no
recovery in American jobs as yet seen.
If at the end of Q1 there has still not been a recovery
in U.S. jobs (Census worker hiring aside), there will
be strong political pressure for yet another stimulus
package, and for the Fed to remain on hold.
While gold shares are now significantly undervalued to the
metal on the HUI:Gold ratio, and while the technical case
for support here at HUI 377 is strong, leave some powder dry
for a potential re-test of HUI 336 just in case this market
correction is not yet complete.
SOTB |
