Hi, Al! For whatever it's worth...I am still working on the theory that there will be something of a rally in November, followed by weakness again in December. I expect the Dec weakness to come from two principle sources: 1. Tax loss selling and 2. Profit "lockins" by the fund managers. There is certainly no assurance that the market will "retest" after recovering from that drop, but it has happened often enough in the past that I prefer to play for the probability. The Oct/Dec pairing of lows is fairly popular --- check back, for example to the final lows in the '73/'74 bear market. Not that we are in a bear market (just the reverse).. but I still need a scenario to base decisions on, and the "Retest" theory is useful.
My 80% figures was on a dollar basis, Al... actually, upon refiguring, it was about 78%. Remaining holding include an assortment of calls and mutual funds (some of the funds could not be re-entered without maintaining some position). I do notice that all of the positions I retained would have better been sold... and repurchased yesterday <g>
Speaking of entry points...there was a great indicator to buy LSI short-term a couple of days back, before I was back on the air.. Check the IQ chart's portrayal of LSI, with stochastics. LSI, of course, is one of the stocks I'm still counting on to come out of the pits with flying colors... will buy still more calls if we get the expected December pullback, and will ride them into late Feb, I expect.
Thanks for the tip on the CTEC options...will have a look and chat with you again later... if the premiums aren't too high, I'm interested. Happy investing, O Animal Tamer of the LSI Thread! Defend us from those cats and dogs! TSO
dlo |
