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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 53.50-1.3%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST
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To: kenhott who wrote (33651)2/4/2010 8:19:05 AM
From: kenhott4 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
OT reply- I don't think % unemployed will be changed by this adjustment. Unemployed % is calculated from another survey. I personally look at the under-employed % instead of the top line unemployment rate because the under-employed number includes most everyone who is not working, looking, needing more work, etc.

And you are right that this change won't yet impact the Jan 2010 numbers due out Friday. The message is the business birth/death assumption does not work when the economy is turning strongly up or down. So Labor Dept will adjust Apr08 to Mar09 jobs down by 824k on Friday. But we have probably been over counting jobs by 1 million from Apr 09 to Dec 09. This over counting will continue till they change the assumption or the economy goes back to a more normal path. The jobs number coming out on Friday for Jan10 will have an over count. The next downward adjustment will be in Feb 2011 covering Apr09 to Mar10.

On to another tangent. I have been listening to a lot of smart people talking about financial system regulations with increasing rules and oversights. I don't think there is more than a minimum chance that oversight will work to control and correct the type of problems we have re: too big to fail, over aggressiveness, etc. I personally think that only structural solutions can work over time but it is looking less and less likely that will happen. I have to laugh about these attempts to tax banks, etc. to behave. These peoples' jobs are all about manipulating $$$s to their own advantage! How is the govt going to win that game vs. these guys?
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