While the US has a focus point under pressure: Obama, Europe does not.
This is a crucial difference. Obama under pressure (after naked senator won the Kennedy seat) decided to govern and establish his leadership.
Europe does not have that focus point to exert pressure on it. Thus periphery a.k.a PIIGS sinking drags down Euroland.
European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet is struggling to convince investors that the euro region shouldn’t be punished for Greece’s budget problems.
businessweek.com
As the Greek government tries to control its record deficit and the country’s bonds slide, Trichet today said the economy of the 16-nation euro area is solid and its budget shortfall will probably be smaller than those of the U.S. and Japan this year. The euro nevertheless fell more than half a cent against the dollar and Spanish and Portuguese stocks dropped on concern they are in a similar predicament to Greece.
Trichet “did not convince me,” said Stuart Thomson, who helps manage $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, Scotland. “Where does he think the Greek, Spanish and Portuguese economies will be three years from now? Their austerity measures will weigh on the euro area as a whole.”
Trichet has been forced to fend off questions about the survival of the euro as investors doubt Greece’s ability to cut its deficit from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product to below the European Union’s 3 percent limit. As concern spreads to Spain and Portugal’s rising debt burdens, Trichet faces the difficult task of trying to stress the need for fiscal prudence without inflaming skepticism that it can be achieved.
“Something has to happen to turn credibility around,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, head of Market Economics at BNP Paribas in London. “The market’s just saying it’s not believable. It might have to get worse before it gets better.”
Markets Shudder
Spanish stocks dropped the most in 15 months today and Portugal led declines in government bonds. The euro fell to $1.3728, its lowest level against the dollar since last May. It has dropped more than 9 percent since Nov. 25.
Greek bonds have tumbled in the past two months, pushing the yield on the country’s 10-year debt above 7 percent, the highest since 1999, the year the euro was introduced. The premium investors charge to hold Greek 10-year bonds over the benchmark German bund has widened to 356 basis points, about 10 times what it was two years ago.
The ECB today left its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent and Trichet signaled the bank is in no rush to raise borrowing costs as the economy recovers gradually from its worst recession since World War II.
Still, Trichet said the “solidity” of the euro area “is not necessarily very well known” and its situation compares “very flatteringly with a number of other industrialized countries.”
Gradual Recovery
The euro-area economy will grow 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011, according to the ECB’s December forecasts. It contracted 4 percent last year, the European Commission estimates.
“Trichet is still trying to persuade markets that they should be looking at the euro area as a whole, which does not look that bad, rather than at individual countries, some of which look extremely fragile,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit SpA in London.
Spain’s public debt will rise to 74 percent of GDP by 2011 from 54 percent last year, according to European Commission forecasts. Greece’s debt will increase to 135 percent of GDP from 113 percent, and Portugal’s will increase to 91 percent from 77 percent, the EU estimates.
Greece’s consolidation plans, which call for about 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) of spending cuts and revenue increases this year, are more ambitious than any budget reduction achieved by euro-region countries since the 1970s, according to ING Group.
Greece’s biggest union today approved a second mass strike this month to protest the spending cuts and tax collectors began a 48-hour walkout, illustrating the difficulty Prime Minister George Papandreou faces in implementing his plan.
“We expect and we are confident that the Greek government will take all the decisions that will permit them to reach that goal,” Trichet said. Additional proposals announced by Greece this week to freeze public-sector wages and revamp the pension system “are steps in the right direction,” he said.
--Editors: Matthew Brockett, Fergal O’Brien
To contact the reporter on this story: Gabi Thesing in London at +44-207-6732153 or gthesing@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Fraher at +44-20-7673-2058 or jfraher@bloomberg |
