Well, Obama has already done far more for renewable energy than any of his predecessors. The $80B in the stimulus act is already more money than anything previously spent. Then there are all the loan guarantees, the tax incentives, and the favorable tone running through every government agency now. All of that helps to drive it forward.
I agree with you that there is going to have to be sustained heavy investment for decades before we arrive at the renewable energy golden age. Take electric cars for example. They are going to have that break through on energy storage, before they become economical. I believe economies of scale can knock off 30-40% off existing battery prices, but they'll need to knock another 50-60% before electric cars become complete cost competitive with ICE cars with no government incentives.
I believe 100% that we can get there. How fast is the key question though. With government support to drive economies of scale faster, I believe we can get there in 10 years. With no government support, I believe it will take 20 years. Here's what my nightmare scenario is, though. What if the rest of the world, like China and Japan, race forward with this technology and get that breakthrough before we do? Then most of the wealth from competitive EVs will go to them instead of Americans. That will make me very sad, because this industry is so damn huge and it could mean alot of wealth for Americans if we can crack it first. Not only that, but if we crack it, then we'd be more secure because we would spend $700B a year on oil that enriches our worst enemies like Russia, Venezuela, and the Middle East. |
