>The $1.50/watt-hr projection, as far as I am aware, applies to
>Li-ion with liquid electrolyte and metal canisters. I believe it
>should be worth more to be able to package 23% more active material
>into a space (Compaq study) with about 60% of the weight, as is
>possible with solid polymer.
It will not be worth any more. The differences don't help until they get the capacity up to where their product actually exceeds Li-ion in W-hr/liter or kg of a real battery pack. Ask VLNC and see what they say, I wonder if they are willing to tell you what they plan to charge.
The volumetric energy density should be very comparable to liquid Li-ion for about the first year of production. They (& everyone else considering making polymer) will probably focus first on increasing energy density, so that there is a more compelling reason to switch from lithium-ion. Right now the reasons to use polymer are:
1) Can have a super-thin notebook/phone. Nobody is designing around a 1mm thick battery pack yet because there is no backup plan. The first products will have battery packs that can be replaced with regular lithium-ion prismatic cells "just in case".
2) Some small capacity gain per weight due to lack of metal can.
3) Looks cool as hell in the marketplace. Customers want this stuff.
From a purely technical standpoint, I am having a hard time believing anyone will try to ship a high-volume product with polymer in 1998. I mean I don't think one big cell phone maker (Motorola?) will swoop in and sell 3 million phones with polymer batteries (conservative production estimate), all in 1998. From the phone vendor's point of view, if the battery pack costs $8 but the rest of the phone costs, oh, $150 to make, it is a lot of risk to pile up 3M units in the factory unless you have a backup plan.
Which is not to say VLNC will have any trouble selling what they can make. Just, I'm wondering if you guys think it will be 2 big vendors like before or a bunch of vendors selling smaller quantities into high-end products. Keep in mind that the entire annual worldwide market for >$5k notebooks (a la HP/ULBI model) is less than 500,000 units.
P.S. There is some great analysis in this thread, though I cringe at some of the raw optimism. I think the conservative estimates are going to hit pretty close to the truth for 1998. I have been watching VLNC for years and I want to be in it when the time comes, but right now I'm a big skeptic. Please, if you have a moment, why do you believe their story this time? |
