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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets
IDTI 48.990.0%Mar 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Hippieslayer who wrote (4585)11/4/1997 9:54:00 AM
From: Steve Lewis  Read Replies (1) of 11555
 
I think the times are changing but I don't underestimate the Intel $$ and attitude as exemplified by Andy Grove ("only the paranoid will survive").

In the eighties there was a time when the major PC clones were viewed as risky but eventually they became less risky as their products and IBM's became easier to compare and contrast. In time the X86 MPU clones at the lowend will cost less AND be more powerful.

(I'm not sure the clones have a shot at the highend market (IA-64) though this is years off (2001-2003?) before IA-64 reaches the desktop.)

Unless Intel is pricing their new low end products in the $50-150 range, they will have competitors at the low end. A defacto monopoly that is Intel is slowly losing it's tight grip (it still has one though) and will pull out all the stops and spread fear, uncertainty and doubt against their competitors. The Justice Department recent action into Intel is a very beneficial thing in that Intel will have more than the usual explaining to do if it relies on it's intimidation factor against IDTI & IDTI's potential customers. (Look at what Gates/Microsoft is doing against Netscape, Compaq, etc. or evaluate the behavior of any other defacto monopoly for that matter)

The Intel brand matters and means they can charge more money for the same MPU functionality but the performance/price gap is closing, especially with C6+ and other alternatives emerging. (The innovativeness of the C6 design is that it raises the functionality capability but doesn't depend on costly design tradeoffs to achieve them.)

Also the public is getting smarter and will see that their (2nd?) PC computer is a functional system that runs Windows software for a price. The longer that IDTI stays in the game the better it will be though it needs to execute and fight upstream for another 6-18 months.

Intel's best bet is to change the playing field (new architectures, etc.) and make it so painful for the other players that they don't even want to play anymore---not likely IMO.
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