SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: John Metcalf who wrote (108704)2/23/2010 12:26:42 AM
From: Hawkmoon1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
Thanks, TJ. A side benefit (to me) of this dispute you and Hawk are having.

Not a dispute.. just a spirited debate.. ;0)

Much of what we're discussing is obviously "yet to unfold".

And maybe both of our perspectives are skewed by our personal preconceptions.

I'm sitting here looking at China and wondering why they must rely upon exporting to fuel their markets when there is so much pent up demand. Surely their domestic demand should be sufficient? In fact, we should be exporting to them in order to help meet that pent up demand?

Which makes wonder why Chinese have 30-40% savings rates when apparently there is all this pent-up demand for consumer goods?

I'm wondering why they are building skyscrapers and malls that sit empty?

I'm wondering why there are thousands (hundreds of thousands.. millions?) of empty apartments while millions of Chinese peasants are living in squalor?

I'm wondering why China's aging population isn't factored into future liabilities? 25-30% of China's population will be over 60 within 10 years.

I'm wondering why the rules related to misappropriated capital and excessive speculation that TJ applies to the US don't apply to China?

When one looks at the history of the US, we see numerous booms and busts. We have one Great Depression to throw in as well (and possibly another we're currently looking at). But apparently China is going to be immune from all this and never suffer a depression. In fact, China is going to "save the world"..

I've nothing against the Chinese people FINALLY being able to realize their dreams of economic success. Heck, my Aunt is Chinese and I love her to death. But to think that China can follow the same economic growth path as the US did throughout it's history without possessing political "buy in" and accountability to it's population leaves me somewhat bemused.

I'm certainly quite curious how it's going to do so while avoiding all the problems faced the US over the past 200 years.

Anyway.. these are all questions to which we'll eventually obtain the answers.

TJ has made his case, I've made mine, and somewhere in the middle will lie the truth.

Hawk
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News