3Q results: EPS 0.31, up 41%; rev. 91M, up 47%, from last year.
Great numbers.
The company continues to gradually diversify, and gradually move from generics to proprietary.
From the low in April97, the stock hit a new high every month, doubling by October. We are at the high end of the PE range. We are on the line drawn across the 1993 and 1995 tops. Value investors are selling. Momentum investors are still buying, but I predict they'll see their mistake soon, and the price will drop, or at best establish a horizontal trading range for a while.
If I'd held the stock for 18 months now, I'd consider selling. It's so hard to pick the top, however. On a fundamental/factual basis, it's fully valued. But at this point the herd behavior/emotional/momentum investors may drive it up to absurd levels. I've certainly seen that happen over and over again. Maybe the best strategy is plain old-fashioned boring buy-and-hold. I'll probably end up riding it down, buying more, riding it up again, and in 1999 wondering if I should sell, when the stock is at 55. |
