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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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From: Haim R. Branisteanu2/25/2010 1:01:38 PM
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1804 GMT [Dow Jones] Treasury's 7-yr $32B note yields 3.078%, vs 3.089% just before the 1 p.m. ET auction.

The bid-to-cover ratio is 2.98. The average for the last four seven-yr note sales was 2.75.

The indirect bid - a proxy for demand from foreign buyers including central banks - was 40%. The direct bid, a category of bids from non-primary dealers, banks, money managers and depository institutions that have direct accounts to submit bids to the Treasury auctions, was 17%.

1805 GMT [Dow Jones] The indirect bid - a proxy for demand from foreign buyers including central banks - for the seven-year note auction is 40%, compared with 51.1% in Jan and 44.7% in Dec. The avg is 54.4% for the last four auctions.

The direct bid- those from non-primary dealers, banks, money managers and depository institutions who have direct accounts to submit bids to the Treasury auctions- was 17%, compared to 11.8% in Jan and 6.6% in Dec.

Contact us in New York. Darlene Ross,

US TSYS/7Y: Those who feel that the 7Y might see a better result than mixed 5Y auction of Wed, noted the 7Y background had Bernanke's testimony wrapped up a bit sooner in the day today. Most expected a 3.075%-3.100% 7Y auction result.

But 7s "are really expensive on the curve," said one trader, eyeing the 5/7/10Ys butterfly in particular.

"People who are short are probably going to bid just for what they need, while others will hope for a tail." Others had eyed an Asian/foreign central bank bid or MBS-tied hedging bid. Meanwhile some had noted that the 7-yr sale will raise all new cash.

The 7Y sale follows a mixed US$42B 5Y sale Wed, but a good Tues US$44B 2Y sale (tho those now are a good profit after initially struggling.) And many at different primary dealers emphasized 7Y auction could draw early month-end buying.

But storm is a double-edged sword: other dealers already long Tsys now, might do a bit of profit-taking post-auction or Friday; those doing so today would act in case they too can't make into work Friday amid storm.

Provided by: Market News International
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