IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets

IDTI 48.99

0.0%

Mar 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Marc Phelan who wrote (4575)	11/4/1997 3:23:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) of 11555

The Quest forecast looks to support the theory that the semi industry is poised for a break out over the next few months. Cahners Publications also has a corrolary study they commission for Computer Reseller News to forecast PC & networking industry sales. Both of these studies along with other independent surveys and forecasts fit together to point toward a fairly strong 4th qtr, and a robust 1998. "The currency crisis in Southeast Asia and the prolonged slowdown in Japan have not affected the overall outlook for manufacturing demand, according to the survey," said Joseph W. Duncan, chief economic advisor at Dun & Bradstreet. "The industrial sentiment index has been stable, suggesting moderate economic growth in the coming quarter." This opinion fits with what I have heard in recent conference calls with semi equipment and IC companies. There is still some overhanging fear in the marketplace that the credit crunch and devaluation of currencies will cause a pull-back in capital spending in the Asian countries. The semi equips might get beaten up further if a major company announces customer rescheduling or cancellations. That also could efect semi IC cos to a lesser degree. If the recent action by the World Bank and efforts to shore up the markets prove successful in solidifying the overseas credit markets, then these fears will abate soon. If thats the case, then the semi equips and semi ICs should be near or slitghtly past bottoming out as a group at this point. We will likely see a lot of volotility for a while and might not get a major move up until sales and earnings indications for this quarter start trickling out.

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