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Politics : A US National Health Care System?
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To: Sdgla who wrote (14334)3/10/2010 6:08:32 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (3) of 42652
 
Well, now you are debating areas where there's almost universal economist agreement on. I'm not going to be able to convince you of what drives growth in jobs or how you can tell that jobs growth is on the horizon. Everyone has their opinion, but the statistics show some pretty undeniable leading indicators. That's a subject that is part of any macroeconomics course. If you want to learn more about it, I suggest reading up on ECRI and other groups who specialize in leading economic indicators.

Having said that, what we're seeing in the US today is a tale of two worlds. There are a bunch of long term unemployed. In addition, there are jobs that may never come back. This structural unemployment is due to shifts in the macro economy, similar to when we lost the textile industry to countries like China and more recently the large amount of outsourcing to India. I think we're at a major cross-roads. Many of the jobs lost in the last decade will never come back. And the law of big numbers tells us that our growth will continue to get smaller, which means we won't be able to grow fast enough to bring unemployment down significantly. The only way out of this is a new major growth industry. The only one with the size to do the trick is the renewable energy industry, but as we've seen in this country, Americans don't really want to put the effort or investment into it, either because they are ideologically opposed to it, or they are so worried about the exploding debt that they don't want to make the sizeable investments necessary in our future.

So to sum up in a vulger phrase, we're screwed. It's almost a certainty we are entering a period of stagnation and long term decline. Better teach your kids Mandarin.
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