Here is an interesting post I found on AOL....I have copied it below, hope the author does not mind.............
Subject: Re: Second fool to post
Date: Tue, Nov 4, 1997 18:40 EST
From: Rimpinths
Message-id: <19971104233801.SAA14058@ladder02.news.aol.com>
>>This company is effecting the biggest paradigm shift in distribution history!
I'd hardly say that Amazon.com is engendering a paradigm shift in distribution. Two other companies are behind the distribution network essential for Amazon.com's success: Ingram and Baker & Taylor. Ingram alone accounts for about 60% of the books that end up in the hands of Amazon.com's customers. If they stopped selling books to Amazon.com, Amazon would fall apart in a week. Amazon's decision to build a warehouse in Delaware is an attempt to
re-create what Ingram has already done. Amazon isn't even close to purchasing books on the scale that would allow them to get the same discounts as Ingram, B&T, B&N, and Borders. The one million out-of-print titles that Amazon likes to boast about are purchased from other online out-of-print dealers, not through direct relationships with them. All Amazon does is search for the book you want at websites such as <A
HREF="http://www.interloc.com/">Interloc Home Page</A> (www.interloc.com), buy the book from them, mark it up 50%, and then re-sell to their customer. Their distribution system is so good that it takes twice the time, at twice the price, of buying a book directly from Interloc. (Watch how their profit margins will drop once internet book purchasers catch on to this scam.) Every book purchased at their site must go through their Seattle warehouse,
even if the publisher lives across the street from you in New York. It's a horribly inefficient distribution system. (Which explains why for every $10 in gross profit, they have to spend $20. This fact hasn't changed for three quarters despite increasing sales. Fundamentals, people, fundamentals!) At least Amazon recognizes this fact and they're building an East Coast warehouse, but, again, they're merely trying to re-create what all the above
companies can already do. The only part of Amazon's distribution system that is impressive is their web page, but that's just the cover of the book, and of course there's that old saying that you can't judge a book by its cover. (How apropos!) B&N can and will create a website superior to Amazon's, and they will have the fundamentals to back it up. Once you have the book written, a cover isn't that hard to come up with. Amazon has finished the
cover, now they're trying to write the book.
>>They aren't just about books.
So what else are they about? The excellent earlier post about advertising on the Web demonstrates why advertising will never account for much revenue. What else? Videos and music? They better get started soon, because several other websites are already targeting that market. Besides, Amazon is too young and too poor to begin risky investments in new areas. They haven't even made a buck selling books yet, and
you're already assuming that they're going to conquer new markets? Who knows, maybe they can figure out a way to buy an $8 CD, sell it to you for $10, and still lose $2 in the process.
>>They are the Sam Walton of the internet, and someday, they will make his sales as well as earnings look like a corner grocery store.
On average, Wal-Mart had about $26.2 billion dollars of sales per quarter last year. This quarter, Amazon had about $37.9 million in sales, or about 0.04% of Wal-Mart's. Wal-Mart will be a corner grocery store compared to Amazon? Are these the sort of hysterical assumptions an investor who will pay $60 a share for AMZN makes? No wonder the shorts are getting hit so hard -- they made the stupid assumption that
investors are rational. It's all starting to make sense now.
It's time to wake up and smell the tulips.
Rimpinths |
