Launching biological warfare against the UK is unlikely to get the UK to hand over the Falklands.
The UK faced much stronger threats from Russia for many years.
Also, the UK has considerable biological capability, if only a moderate sized current biological warfare capability.
If Argentina wants to wake up to wheat rust, phyloxxia on the grape vines, and hoof and mouth disease for all their cattle, they should go ahead.
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Regardless of who has the historical rights to the islands,
here's my assesment -
1) The Falklands are 300 miles from Argentina, not 50, so whoever holds it has an enormous advantage.
2) The UK is a major power with extensive capability, and as long as they are NOT landing on the main land and trying to control the population - The UK can kick Argentina around like a tin can.
I expect that the UK might be able to get two carriers close enough to take out about 70% of Argentina's air force.
Argentina does not have any anti-ship missiles with a range of more than 25 km. Brazil may have a longer range missile (100 km) ready in 2014.
3) If there really is an immense amount of oil there, the Argentines may try something. I would expect that a 50 kiloton airburst at 20,000 feet and about 30 km east of Buenos Aires would get their attention and calm them down. About 30 minutes after sunset, while there is still a little light in the sky. With proper notification, air traffic could be shut down, and everyone will hear a really big bang. I don't think this will happen, but the threat can be there.
This has been done before, when Nixon told the Soviets the stop suppling Syria and rein in their client state. |
