Phil, confidence comes from experience. I dont claim to get them all right but simply extrapolate experiences from the past to predict what might happen in the future. Analysis, whether it be fundamental, technical or derivatives from experience, is what makes it investing and a step above playing black at the roulette table.
Nonetheless, skill is this area of trading has what has gotten me where I am. And to think that you should totally ignore short term gyrations in stocks because you are a "long term' investor is misguided. Tech stocks are like linebackers in the NFL. Most arent around for more than 4, 5 years. MSFT and INTC are the execption. Dell was about 13 two years ago, I think. GE, JNJ, MRK, those are long term holdings you buy and forget. S3 is not GE.
But if performance matters then I think I was within a 1/4 point of where I said last night I felt the stock would open and what would happen throughout the day. After a while from seeing this kind of crap happen to companies, you get to know how WallStreet reacts which becomes a catch 22 situation. As such, those are the bets I bet. I dont bet the long shots but bet the favorites.
Good luck to you.
Regards,
steve |
