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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Steve Lokness who wrote (109624)	3/16/2010 12:03:15 PM
From: Sweet Ol	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 116555

Steve, I don't know enough about the new GI Bill to comment intelligently. I will say that recent spending bills in general have been poorly crafted and usually are aimed at special interests. Maybe that is the problem with it, I don't know. Most of the transportation proposal don't pass the smell test. We have an entirely different logistics problem and different infrastructure problems than Europe. But many people seem to think that if we built a European transportation system it would solve all our problems. But these proposals just won't ever be profitable. There are several reasons why we have to think uniquely about our transportation systems. (1) We have a different infrastructure already in place. We have many more airports, better highways (placement, not construction quality), and long distances to traverse. Most parts of our country are not densely enough populated to support mass transit. (2) We have a different culture and mind-set. We want to go on our own timetable, we want to go fast, we want to go independently and etc. We are a society built around the car and it will take many generations to change that fact. The coming high price of fuel will have an impact on that attitude but won't erase it. High cost fuel will spawn alternatives when they are economical. Probably alternatives that have not even been thought of yet. Provided of course that the heavy hand of the government doesn't make preemptive decisions that will naturally be wrong. People will change and adapt only when a better (or no) alternative exists. Right now the mass transit proposals have no appeal to the vast majority of our people. Just because it works in France doesn't mean it will work here. (By the way, I love to ride the TGV in France, but I don't see very many good places for it here.) When better, more economical and effective methods become available the free market will build them because they will be profitable enterprises. If we let the politicians and bureaucrats make the decisions they will invariably be an awful screwed up mess. That is just the nature of governments. Look at how information technology, especially the Internet, has changed our personal and business lives. Business travel is way down and the virtual workplace is on the rise. Think what impact the next 10 years will have on transportation needs. Also think where we would be today if we had let the USPS be in charge of the Internet!!!! Everybody should be in favor of good ideas at the right time and right place. Everyone should likewise be opposed to bad ideas and good ideas at the wrong time or place. Best, JRH

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