re: "any ideas about where the PM's are heading?"
Eva, Eva, Eva...
I always have ideas.
Here's one...
Remember the old saying: "As GM goes, so goes America?"
We'll here's a new one: "As China goes, so goes Gold stocks."
2 year chart:
1 year chart:
6 month chart:
3 month chart:
Gold and PM stocks trade off a wide variety of catalysts,
correlations, and causations.
-- the US Dollar
-- the Inflation Rate
-- Money Supply
-- Interest Rates
-- Geopolitical Risk
-- Bond Markets
-- Stock Markets
-- the Price of Oil
And any number of stories du jour.
Right now - that story is China. With Europe and America
mired in economic quicksand, all eyes are on China. Is
China still growing? Is China still buying commodities?
Is China a bubble? Is America trying to start a trade war
with China? Will China buy the next tranche of IMF gold?
And right now, the China FXI/HUI Gold trend is our friend...
And for the U.S. Dollar...
Here's a 20 year chart on the dollar. The present
downtrend is still firmly in place, with a series
of lower highs, and lower lows of USD 80, USD 70,
now trending towards a new low of USD 60.
&i=p29816758729&a=190698190&r=4199)
Key resistance is USD 85. A breakout above USD 85 will
end the Dollar's downtrend.
With old resistance of $1,000 gold now holding as new
support, Q1 earnings for most miners should be outstanding.
As I mentioned earlier, I liked buying this retracement
from January into February, as the HUI was very cheap
to gold, and it set's up nicely for strong March to May
seasonals, backed by what should be strong earnings.
Keep an eye on the dollar, and an ear tuned to the China
story, and let 'em continue run. The HUI/FXI trend is
still our friend.
SOTB |
