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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (72885)3/17/2010 2:33:32 AM
From: Maurice Winn1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
TJ, you weren't really guilty of bullying ACF. Not really any more than Zim the Amazing was guilty of bullying you.

The fact that you attempt to bully doesn't mean that you achieve it. You might indeed be guilty of the offence, even if you don't achieve your objective. But as normal with words in cyberspace, they say a lot more about the writer than about the intended victim.

ACF was a dinkum good bloke. I doubt that he was bullied and badgered out of town. He probably simply chose to leave because there wasn't enough value for him to be gained.

In terms of "intrinsically evil", in rating you and ACF, you might be superior to him.

Meanwhile, beyond the pale of the SI village, there are major forces at work, with 2010 very likely to provide plenty of entertainment in all spheres. Though already quarter of the year has gone by and still no relapse has happened.

In NZ, huge numbers of houses are being dumped on the market with "time to sell" rapidly escalating and sufficient stock to last a year.

The rapidly falling interest rates gave everyone a couple of years of breathing room, so prices actually rebounded from a 10% drop to the peak. Now, there is going to be another slide with not so much room for interest rate cuts to save debtors' skin.

With $1 billion a month deficit [which is real money in a country with total GDP similar to that of one large building in Hong Kong], interest rates with nowhere much to go but up, new taxes coming onto property to capture capital gains which haver heretofore been tax free, with ring-fencing of investment properties, and no particular economic development in NZ, but plenty of emigration of the productive, and burgeoning spivs, bludgers, kleptocrats, regulations restrictions, taxes and other burdens, compounded by unhindered crime and general dissolution, and a high NZ$, there is plenty of downside and no apparent upside.

Recommendation = short NZ$, sell NZ real estate, perhaps abandon ship.

Mqurice
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