westexas (Jeff Brown) on March 18, 2010 - 9:55am
Chindia's Net Imports
From 2005 to 2008, Chindia's (China & India) net imports increased at about 9%/year (EIA). Expressed as a percentage of combined net exports from the (2005) top five net exporters, Chindia's net imports went from 19% in 2005 to 27% in 2008 (probably to about 33% in 2010). If we take Sam's best case for net exports from the (2005) top five and project Chindia's current rate of increase in net imports out to 2018, then in 2018, Chindia's net imports would be equivalent to 100% of projected (2005) top five net exports.
But have we ever seen a sustained near double digit rate of increase in net oil imports over a long time period?
From 1949 to 1977, the rate of increase in US net imports was 11.8%/year, exceeding the current rate of increase in Chindia's net imports. Of course, until 1973, oil prices were fairly stable and this time period (1949-1977) corresponded to generally increasing global net exports, but on the other hand Chindia has shown increasing consumption and net imports, even as oil prices rose at 20%/year from 1998 to 2008.
EIA (PDF) production, consumption, net imports chart for the US:
eia.doe.gov
Incidentally, the rate of increase in net imports from 1949 to 1970 was 11%/year, but US net imports really kicked up after US production peaked in 1970, going from 3.2 mbpd in 1970 to 8.6 mbpd in 1977 (and then entering a period of decline, before resuming the increase in later years). But in any case, the rate of increase in net imports from 1970 to 1977 was 14%/year, after US production peaked in 1970. Over the same time period, 1970 to 1977, US oil prices also rose at 14%/year (EIA).
Note that two factors contributed to the late Seventies decline in US net oil imports--falling consumption and rising production from Alaska, as the Alaskan pipeline was finished. It would appear that the all time annual record high for US net imports was in 2005, at 12.5 mbpd.
Recent EIA data show that Chinese oil production is flat, while Indian oil production is down slightly. |
