just in in-tray, i quote,
player 1: Some notes on the Health Care Plan. Many states are claiming this bill is unconstitutional, so it could be tied up in courts for quite a while. While it supposed helps “reduce the deficit,” it calls for $500 Billion in Medicare cuts. I seriously doubt that those cuts will ever come to pass, meaning that either the deficit grows even larger, or taxes (most likely on the rich) go up even further.
Payments to doctors is scheduled to be cut even more. As of today, Medicare pays doctors $53 for a standard visit. That is supposed to be cut to $42. Doctors lose money even at today’s rates, so I suspect many doctors will refuse to accept patients on Medicare and Medicaid, creating more “unintended consequences.” "Yes, you now have health care, but it appears that there are no 'health care givers' to fulfill your needs. Cash only please."
The bill assumes that states will be picking up a substantive portion of the costs, yet most states are coming close to facing bankruptcy. Solutions? None at the moment. Drug reimbursements today are so low for Medicaid that Walgreens and other drug stores are refusing to fill prescriptions for new Medicaid patients in states such as Oregon. This too will get worse. Solutions? None. As you can tell, I’m not a fan of the legislation.
player 2: Sadly I am in total agreement with you. I am also don't see how the new rule that previous conditions can not be rejected and changes on the life time caps that we used to have will "reduce" the cost of health care. I expect the bill wonder will cause insurance premiums to go up for the same coverage resulting in people currently having insurance having to pay more for the same coverage or getting a new policy with less coverage. FICA conversion from a payroll tax to an income tax will make a lot of people happy.
This looks like the gift that will keep on giving for any party that competes with the Democrats. I was assuming they liked being the majority party so I don't know what to make of it. Can they really be that out of touch? It was just astonishing to watch.
player 3: I'm not so sure Don.This could all play out like Medicare (note Pelosi is using the same gavel in photo ops) which was hugely controversial in the 60s.Medicare has been a colossal failure on a cost/benefit anaysis (it currently costs about 20x the CBO l-t estimate)but even right-wing Republicans won't attack it for fear of a geriatric backlash.Bad legislation creates powerful constituencies just as effectively as good legislation.
player 2: That is a possibility but the people in Massachusetts have had a similar plan in place for some time. The way they voted with the health plan as an issue it seems they are not that happy with it. I think we can all agree this will very likely also be a colossal failure on costs and will end up nowhere near budget neutral in the end what will matter the most? The budget or voters upset with health care?
There will be printing.... I am trying to be positive and hope that upset voters will be able to start pushing reforms before that alternative of total collapse arrives. Currently the upset voters are only making baby steps but I don't expect a total collapse next week. This is the same old cycle of events we see repeated back into the mists of time.
I am cheering for my team - the angry voters. :) This is still hope. Things are getting interesting in some of the states and in the past that has been a source for reforms that made their way to Washington. You can be sure I am not giving odds on it as the most likely outcome but it would be nice to see some progress in that area. I gave up drinking so I can handle some good news and retain my grumpy old man demeanor.
player 4: I have a bunch of friends and acquaintances in Durango, all retirees. They say new comers already have severe problems because no doctors will take NEW Medicare patients. I assume this will not improve with the health care reform.
One friend had a hip replacement lately. She found a highly recommended surgeon. This surgeon will not mess with medicare so she had to pay for the surgeon herself. I do not know what other choices she had, go down the phone book until someone who will accept medicare? She paid the surgeon about $7000 for the just the surgery, not including the hospital and anesthesia etc. I wonder how much would medicare pay for a hip replacement.
Another friend had back surgery just before 65, paid for by private insurance. He turned 65 and needed a follow up, the surgeon said no medicare, sorry.
Now why would AARP support the bill?
player tj: below is just in in-tray from somewhere, and i QUOTE,
Health Care: Arbitrage Obama And The Dems
market-ticker.denninger.net
If you have any belief whatsoever in the efficient market hypothesis this is exactly what people will do as the effective dates for these provisions approach, as it will save them ten thousand dollars a year or more - each. The insurance companies will instantaneously lose the "pool" of healthy people who buy against risk - rather, they will have a pool of all sick people who buy against known costs.
Forget it folks - this is the end of the health industry in America, and I will be looking for the recognition in the market (as expressed by technical analysis on the stocks in this sector) that the efficient market will come to the fore.
Yes, I mean it.
And yes, I've read the Health Bill. Both the 2,000+ page original and The House changes as voted upon.
Here's the bottom line:
If you refuse to buy health insurance, you will be fined on a sliding scale that amounts to 2% of your AGI. So if you make $100,000 a year, you could be fined $2,000 for "refusing" to buy insurance.
You cannot buy a catastrophic policy any more. The "cheapest" acceptable policy will cost somewhere around $15,000 for a single person, and over $20,000 for a family. This is, for most people, more than five times the maximum possible fine - each and every year. The law makes it effectively impossible to maintain an existing catastrophic policy as they "renew" every year, and should any change be made you are then forced to buy something "acceptable" in the law (or pay the fine.)
When the "pre-existing condition" bar comes down you cannot be charged more or denied coverage due to pre-existing conditions.
I fully expect 20-50% premium increases immediately, and for the next three years sequentially, in all existing policies. This is precisely what the banks did in front of the CARD act becoming effective, and it will happen here as well. That is the cause of the short-term rocket shot in the health-related stocks this morning.
In addition the capital gains tax changes will do severe damage to capital formation immediately, and these changes will become especially severe starting in 2014. The market will anticipate these changes and react accordingly, although you certainly wouldn't know it today.
Ok, this one's easy.
When the fines and pre-existing coverage "stop-out" go into effect (now for kids, in a couple of years for the rest) drop all coverage for those affected.
Why?
Because:
The fine is 1/5th or less the cost of the "insurance."
For routine care, you now can negotiate for your care before it is provided. It will be cheaper to do so than to buy the insurance - for routine events. Don't try to tell me it's not either - I've been carrying a catastrophic-only policy now for more than a decade, and as a consequence I've negotiated these fees and costs for routine things and saved tens of thousands compared to simply "buying a full-boat policy." The only reason for me to carry the "catastrophe" policy - the possibility of being screwed if I developed a serious condition and thus got excluded - has just been erased by this law, effective in a couple of years.
If you have a catastrophe of any form, buy the insurance at that point in time. You cannot be turned down or charged more.
Screw the government. They are the ones who set the standards - we simply have to live with them, and this is the only logical action to take given what they have just done.
Is there a risk in this strategy? Sure. You could have a "zero notice" catastrophe before you (or someone with a power of attorney) could buy a policy. So you have to be able to survive that sort of "short-term" event - but remember, you're going to be banking $10-20k per person during the time you're running "naked." So do exactly that - bank it for a year or two - so you have the ability to cover the instant expense from one of those "aw crap!" catastrophic circumstances. Fact is, they don't happen often and in a year or so you can have a very nice cushion against them.
Businesses will be dropping people like flies from business-covered "insurance"; there will be no reason for anyone as an employer to be providing this "benefit" into an environment where insurance prices will double - and probably double twice - in the next four years. If you think not, look at what was done to credit-card holders in front of the provisions of the CARD act going into effect.
This, by the way, will bankrupt the insurance companies in the end. Nobody will buy until they have HIV, Cancer or some other serious illness - then they will buy, and the companies will have to pay - with no lifetime caps or exclusions for pre-existing conditions.
The health care companies that are getting a rocket shot today in the stock market are being bought by fools.
If you have any belief whatsoever in the efficient market hypothesis this is exactly what people will do as the effective dates for these provisions approach, as it will save them ten thousand dollars a year or more - each. The insurance companies will instantaneously lose the "pool" of healthy people who buy against risk - rather, they will have a pool of all sick people who buy against known costs.
Forget it folks - this is the end of the health industry in America, and I will be looking for the recognition in the market (as expressed by technical analysis on the stocks in this sector) that the efficient market will come to the fore.
The intention of The Democrats (and liberals generally) in this legislation is clear and impossible to hide - they intend to completely destroy private health care in favor of a fully-government-run single-payer system. The efficient market guarantees this outcome given the law they passed, and they know it.
I cannot stop this idiocy but I can sure attempt to profit from it.
I am looking to establish the largest targeted short positions of my investing career if and when the technicals confirm that this obvious arbitrage is about to, or is, taking place.
This is one place where a fistful of PUTs can easily turn thousands into hundreds of thousands, and is an extremely-high probability play.
Disclosure: No positions in the sector yet, but as discussed I will have some extremely large ones in the coming months and years!
UNQUOTE
... and so i must conclude: obama continues to ruination. recommendation: getgold |
