Thanks, Max. TH is one of the best. He always explains both bull and bear arguments and is appropriately angry about how the government has handled things, but he is much too seasoned a trader to let emotions get in the way of his trading.
If you asked me for my near-term opinion, I would offer that the tape tops out before quarter-end under S&P 1200, consistent with the path of maximum frustration as fund managers reach for performance. Remember, when S&P 1150 was surmounted, a lot of shorts covered, removing a natural layer of forward demand.
That's a useful thought for near term direction. He doesn't pretend to know where the markets are headed, though, which is always refreshing.
His long terms calls have been mixed, like anyone else (he got bearish too soon in 2003, and again in 2009), but he's too disciplined to let himself get hurt badly when the tide goes against him.
He mentions that it might take five to seven years before debt destruction has run its course, and big upside opportunities arise.
I guess here he would disagree with Faber, who seems to think the government can keep things afloat for up to another five years before inflation spirals out of control. Faber's a lot more bearish than TH in the long term. |
