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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Berney who wrote (9122)11/5/1997 4:39:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Berney,

If the snowball starts rolling downhill, EPS growth for the next 5 years
would be negative.

Let's be conservative and weigh the possibilities:

30% chance (not my own opinion, but I'll play this game) earnings growth will continue at the same rate of last 5 years (the new era ideology)

50% chance rate of earnings growth will slow (as KO MSFT and others warned).

20% chance earnings will decline, a negative rate of growth.

Now-
0.3 x 12 + 0.5 x 9 + 0.2 x -2 = 7.7

Where does this put the S&P?

ATG
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