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Non-Tech : Alternative energy
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To: Eric who wrote (7692)3/26/2010 4:59:12 PM
From: Doren  Read Replies (2) of 16955
 
Since Alt Energy stock tend to be affected by oil I thought I'd post some musings here. I'm strongly thinking about investing in some Alt Energy. I would welcome an comments from other's thinking. - My thinking is:

1) I have a feeling we may be headed to a repeat* of the 2008 oil price scare this summer. Consumers have not learned their lesson even with $3 gas is the norm now. They've been lulled into obliviousness. See China articles below. China is the largest consumer of SUVs now I believe.

2) My picks would be either misunderstood, or obscure Alts with fairly large Market Caps, or one of the major solars.

3) I'm leaning toward the misunderstoods as better long term candidates, but good candidates for irrational money during a crisis.

4) The solars will probably climb higher than the misunderstoods during a crunch, but I just don't feel comfortable with most of them long term. Their margins are just too thin and they don't have proprietary barriers to entry other than FSLR which is vulnerable to Germany's whims.

5) As the markets improve and the economy heats up we use more energy manufacturing and distributing. Oil seems to follow the market up acting like a damper on profits. But the market has been pretty strong lately.

6) A coming energy crunch is debatable, we know it's coming, but it still doesn't seem clear when it will come:

Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third'

telegraph.co.uk

Platts Report: Chinese Oil Demand Soars to Record High 8.5 mil b/d in February

tinyurl.com

Crude oil stockpiles climb by 7.3 million barrels

finance.yahoo.com

Although crude doesn't seem like it's a problem I'm thinking perhaps refining capacities might play a role during the coming vacation/driving season.

Note the blurb in the last article:

"Gasoline inventories fell 2.7 million barrels, or 1.2 percent, to 224.6 million barrels. That drop was steeper than what analysts expected. Supplies are 3.9 percent above year-ago levels."
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