+The Real Generic Ballot
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 35%
Tuesday, March 23, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
Republican candidates now hold an eight-point lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 35% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Voter support for GOP congressional candidates dipped slightly from last week, while support for Democrats held steady.
Last week, Republicans posted a 10-point lead, their biggest margin in nearly three years of weekly tracking. GOP candidates started 2010 ahead by nine points, while support for Democrats fell to its lowest level over the same period. Towards the end of 2009, Republicans enjoyed a more modest lead over Democrats, with the gap between the two down to four points in early December. Still, since the beginning of the year, the Republican lead hasn’t dipped below seven points.
Separate polling taken just before the House vote on Sunday approving a national health care plan finds that just 11% of voters rate Congress’ performance as good or excellent, a range it’s been hovering in since late 2007. Sixty-four percent (64%) say Congress is doing a poor job.
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Voters not affiliated with either major party continue to favor the GOP by a 41% to 19% margin, showing little change for several months now.
Throughout the fall and winter of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 42% to 47%. Republican support ranged from 37% to 41%. When President Obama was inaugurated, Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot.
The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring of 2009, but in late June – around the same time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform -- Republicans pulled ahead for good.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders finally gathered enough votes in the House to pass the Senate health care reform bill this past Sunday by a 219-to-212 margin. But voter attitudes have remained consistent since just after Thanksgiving: Most voters oppose the plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats.
Not a single House Republican voted for the health care plan, and 50% of voters say they’re less likely to vote this November to reelect any member of Congress who votes for the plan.
Sixty-three percent (63%) think it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were defeated this November. Just 27% say their representative in Congress is the best possible person for the job.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters now favor their state suing the federal government to fight the requirement in the health care plan that every American must obtain health insurance. At the same time, half (50%) of voters nationwide say states should have the right to opt out of the entire plan. That's up three points from the end of last year.
Forty-three percent (43%) of Americans expect the cost of prescription drugs to go up if the health care plan becomes law.
Congress' top leaders are feeling the heat from voters this month, as separate polling shows three of the four - Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority leader John Boehner - reaching or matching their highest unfavorable ratings of the past year. Pelosi remains by far the most unpopular congressional leader
Rasmussen Reports has polled on 2010 Senate races in Oklahoma, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, California, Indiana, Wisconsin, Washington, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Connecticut, Illinois, and Iowa.
Rasmussen Reports also has released recent polls on the 2010 governor's races in Texas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Wisconsin.
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