GPOR. Yes, I agree with your pros and cons. I have held a large position in GPOR from 2008-2009 where I bought it mostly in $2-4 range (+ small buys in $10-12 range in 2008). I have sold a lot in $7-12 range, but still have large position at current prices.
It seems to me pretty expensive here, high P/B, high P/S, not much upside even assuming return of top earnings in 2007 when their income was about 38M. The positives are 90% oil skew (vs gas) + oil sands. I would not buy here, but I'll probably hold my position. Would I buy if I didn't have a position? Probably not.
Overall, I want to hold oily companies since I think oil price will continue to remain high and may climb higher. However, the stock prices are pretty high too, so I am undecided what to do. I have lightened some of my positions (GPOR, PBEGF, eliminated SU) and moved some money to new ideas, some of which (IACAF) have run up from my entry, some of which may still be attractive (CLLZF, COPJF). They are smallish foreign outfits though that may have their own set of issues. From larger companies, NXY might still be attractive too.
I have also invested in deepwater drillers (RIG, DO, ATW), though I am less attracted to the sector since its a service sector and because all 3 companies also have about 50% of commodity shallow water rigs that may be in oversupply. |
