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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: GST who wrote (242660)3/30/2010 12:19:49 PM
From: GraceZRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
The direction of real estate prices -- whether they are headed up, sideways or down -- factors heavily into the financial planning of most Americans.

I expect the price of my house to stay about even with the real cost of putting a similar roof over my head and not much more than that for many years. The game of ever increasing RE prices is over for a long time (the next 8-10 years at the low estimate, maybe 20 years on the high), at least it is in my location.

IOW, if I were to take the cash value of my paid off house and put that money into another financial asset of similar risk, it would produce enough income to pay rent on a similar property.

There is a tax incentive to remain an owner (even without the mortgage deduction). That said, there is a serious risk that any income from a financial asset would be taxed at a much higher rate in the future, but that may be entirely offset by the risk of much higher RE taxes as well as maintenance costs in the future. Right now both those risks are about equal since both the local as well as the Feds are looking for income any where they can squeeze it out.
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