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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Walter Bagehot who wrote (37243)4/3/2010 4:21:03 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 78748
 
Walter Bagehot. Yes, read. I'm following that thread.

Good points you've made.

The shipping sector is a dangerous place to place money.

Some companies seem to have long-term charters (time-charters vs. having lots of ships on the spot-market), and that for me ameliorates some concerns. I like SBLK and esp. NM for that, esp. as NM have gov't insurance for some of their contracts (if the contracting party should default on payment to NM. Which is a distinct possibility if trade craters.)

I'm willing to hold ULTR for its barge business in Brazil. I've been buying TOO, and may buy more. It has ships that store/move oil from offshore to ports (where drill rigs are too far offshore for there to be pipelines to shore.) The good TOO distribution may help me to hold on to this stock. I like off-shore, and for shipping I also have HOS. (For other off-shore transport, I like couple of helicopter companies.)

Have several others. Very small positions. In general though, will agree with you: tankers/dry bulk/commodity --- a dangerous area for the small investor/speculator: One fights overbuilding, raw material costs affecting buyers/sellers and therefore how much is being shipped, and the ship owner insiders who are mostly and closer to almost-all (it seems) not aligned with shareholders.
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