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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 389.75+0.5%Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (62512)4/6/2010 8:39:12 AM
From: carranza21 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) of 218135
 
Except for its characterization of the northern borderlands as not being considered a part of the 'real' Mexico, the article got it surprisingly right.

It missed one thing: if enough moolah changes hands, the government will sic the military on a cartel in order to support the one making the payments. This is thought to be happening now, with the Sinaloa cartel being the current favorite. My info is that the government is going after Sinaloa's enemies, the Gulf and Juarez cartels. The stats show very few Sinaloans getting arrested or killed, but lots of the others taking big hits.

The Gulf cartel screwed up when it co-opted the Mexican Army's special forces guys, getting them to quit the Army in order to work for the cartel at greatly increased compensation. I think this was a major strategic mistake. The Sinaloa guys are probably a bit more shrewd, making a deal with the government not to break the rules of this deadly game.

The government always wins, as another cartel might up the ante, and get the government to do its bidding. This is why Mexico won't be a failed state: the government can always favor one cartel over another and retain the upper hand by dividing and conquering. And so long as the cartels keep fighting, things will be bad, but there will be no collapse as their beef is mainly with each other.

It is all a big business, with the top pols raking in huge sums in bribes. Getting elected governor of a northern state is a sure fire way to get quite rich. If you survive, that is: a former governor barely missed getting killed in an assassination attempt. He was shot in the head but survived.
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