Hard to say, the liquidity is in already. Even though the
Fed supposedly stopped printing and will drain, it is likely
a bluff, as they have multiple ways to inject liquidity, some
may be virtually undetectable. Thus, computers and derivative
markets will continue to rule until they don't. What I mean
is, until they run out of money. Greece is sold because of
computer models, ditto treasuries are bought because of them.
Printing is an irrelevant variable, the Fed is bluffing.
Until the market calls the bluff, the path of least resistance
may be higher. 1200 is an important level everyone is
watching. These markets will have upside fireworx if it is
exceeded, about 100 Spoos points, IMHO. Then of course, this
important level could act to the downside.
JOAT who posts here has a nice set of spoons for spoos, with
1229 and ~ 1350 as the next R numbers. Nevertheless, 1170-1200
is a R area that goes back to Lehman BK and all the way back
to year Y2K. So, it is important. I think too many bears may
be piling up here, too many J6P are in bonds, watching 70%
rally since March 2009 lows, so .... who knowz. Until we have
a change of trend, the trend is your friend. It's definitely
up. The season is normally bullish -g-
Message 26439150 |
